On 3 May, Indian Foreign minister Jaswant Singh ruled out military intervention. But India would provide humanitarian assistance. India became embroiled in the conflict in 1987, when an Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) arrived in the island following the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement of 29 July 1987. The peace force was soon at war with the LTTE. By the time the IPKF withdrew in March 1990, after demand by Sri Lanka, 1,200 Indian troops had been killed. The IPKF/LTTE war led to the assassination of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in May 1991.
The bitter experience in Sri Lanka has made India more cautious. However, many analysts believe that the Sri Lankan conflict is difficult to solve without India’s role. The Indian government is also concerned about public opinion, particularly in Tamil Nadu, the southern state where 55 million Tamils live. As fighting continued in Jaffna, more refugees began arriving in Tamil Nadu, where there are already 70,000 Sri Lankan refugees in 133 government camps. Some 80,000 are said to live outside the camps, 37,000 of whom are registered with the police.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, whose DMK party is an ally of the Indian government, warns about the consequences of intervention but says he would not ‘tie New Delhi’s hands’. Most Tamil Nadu parties, including former Chief Minister Jayalalitha’s AIADMK oppose military involvement.
As a regional power, India is placed in a difficult position. There is fear that LTTE’s rise may fuel separatist sentiments in Tamil Nadu. Observers say India is reluctant to intervene, but, does not want to see its influence diminished by other nations. Arms supply from Pakistan and China may worry India. Sri Lanka has also restored diplomatic ties with Israel, who are providing air power to knock out LTTE’s artillery. With general elections looming, observers believe that President Chandrika will not hesitate to summon even the devil.