Eight parties representing the minority Roman Catholic community and the majority Protestant population signed the historic accord on 10 April. Northern Ireland will continue to be part of the United Kingdom unless a majority of the people decide against it in a referendum scheduled for 22 May.
The signatories have acknowledged the substantial differences between the continuing, and equally legitimate, political aspirations and pledged to strive towards reconciliation and rapprochement within the framework of democracy and agreed arrangements.
The agreement envisages an elected assembly in Northern Ireland, a North-South ministerial council to establish links between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and a British-Irish council to promote harmonious relations in the British Isles.
Sri Lankan Foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, welcoming the agreement, told Reuters in mid-April that peace talks in the island were possible only if there is credible evidence that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader V Prabhakaran has given up the demand for Eelam or separate Tamil state in the north-east.
Sri Lankan newspapers have highlighted the differences between Sri Lanka and Northern Ireland and raised doubts over the commitment of the Sri Lankan parties to peace. Observers point to relevant features of the peace process in Northern Ireland, particularly the bipartisan cooperation between the ruling Labour Party and the opposition Conservative Party, which was a vital factor in clinching the peace deal.
In Sri Lanka, bipartisan cooperation envisaged in the agreement brokered by Britain in April last year is in shambles with continuing violence between the ruling People’s Alliance (PA) and the opposition United National Party (UNP). Colombo newspaper Weekend Express columnist Barometer points out that the US mediator Senator Mitchell played an important role in the Northern Ireland peace process. Observers say the strategy of misinformation by both sides has wrecked many peace initiatives in the past, and only an impartial mediator acceptable to the parties would help to minimise this problem.
LTTE’s political advisor Anton Balasingham told Jaffna Catholic Bishop Thomas Savundaranayagam at an early April meeting in the Vanni that the Tigers were not opposed to foreign mediation in the conflict. But some analysts believe that the LTTE’s position is only tactical and point to Mr Balasingham’s ominous statement that peace is possible only when the LTTE achieves strength equal to the Sri Lankan military.
In her Sinhalese Tamil New Year message on 14 April President Chandrika Kumaratunge reasserted her “peace through war” strategy when she called for support to the security forces fighting the LTTE. The government has so far ruled out foreign mediation saying that the conflict is an internal matter.
The government is yet to decide on a date for a national referendum for the approval of its devolution proposals. The absence of a clear victory in the battle for the Vanni and widespread industrial unrest have placed the government in a difficult position. Observers say the government hopes to test its support at the Provincial Council elections, scheduled for mid-1998, before a referendum.
US representative to the UN Bill Robertson’s visit to the island on 18 April, is seen by hardliners as further encouragement for the war against the Tigers. The US added the LTTE to its list of terrorist organisations in October and approved supply of combat related equipment to Sri Lanka.
The Sri Lankan Tamil parties are concerned that Mr Robertson’s call to the LTTE to enter into peace talks will go unheeded while the US and Sri Lankan bans on the Tigers remain. Sri Lankan Emergency regulations proscribing the LTTE prohibit contacts with the Tigers.
While the Tamil parties urge the US to play a positive role in ending the war, the Movement for Reconciliation, Peace and Justice encourages the setting up of a task force composed of members of the two main political parties and representatives of a Commonwealth or other country to agree on the basic principles of power-sharing and devolution.
Commonwealth Secretary General Emeka Anyaoku who arrived in Sri Lanka on 17 April on a three-day visit, says the time is right to initiate efforts to end the war and he has already begun the process. But it is unclear what process has been begun.
Following Indian foreign policy advisor Nagenranath Jha’s statement in Colombo on 21 April that India had the duty to show ‘friendly concern’ in the conflict, there are fears in Colombo that India has returned to the policy of intervention.
New Delhi is said to be working to promote ‘a concrete, palatable and immediately implementable’ package to end the conflict. Analysts believe that the possibility of a negotiated settlement in Sri Lanka with third party mediation is impossible unless the mediator and the solution are acceptable to India.