Although the Sri Lankan government has steadfastly refused to consider foreign mediation, President Chandrika Kumaratunge revealed in January that she had requested the Commonwealth Secretary General and the Norwegian government for assistance. The Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran has been demanding international mediation for the last three years and is said to favour Norway as an intermediary.
Mr Strommen arrived in Sri Lanka on 23 January for spadework before the visit of Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek in February for talks with the Sri Lankan government. Mr Strommen and other Norwegian diplomats have been working for many months to establish contacts with the parties.
Two other important developments have also raised optimism. The first is the offer of the main opposition United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremasinghe in mid-January to support the government’s constitutional reform proposals in Parliament. The other is the announcement of the ruling People’s Alliance (PA) government of a four-stage plan for peace negotiations: 1) Talks among the coalition members of the PA; 2) talks with the Tamil and Muslim parties; 3) talks between the PA and the UNP; 4) talks with the LTTE.
Observers say that the UNP’s sudden volte-face springs from the government’s threat to introduce a law which would enable MPs to cross-over to another party without losing their seat in Parliament. Some UNP MPs have already indicated their support to the PA and cross-overs were likely if the law came into force. After the UNP offered to provide the required two-thirds majority in Parliament for constitutional change, the government announced that the new law would not be introduced.
Following Chandrika’s victory at the presidential election, many believe that her party, the PA, will win the general elections. In such circumstances, the UNP may wish to provide support to the PA to abolish the executive presidential system of government removing a president with enormous powers.
The PA seems to have other cards up its sleeve. According to new proposals, President Chandrika will continue as the executive President enjoying the same powers for the next six years while the Prime Minister remains powerless. Only after the transitional six-year period, the real Westminster-style parliamentary system will come into operation. The UNP may consider this as a betrayal of government promises. Furthermore, such major changes to the draft constitution, made public in January 1996, may require extensive consultations to ensure acceptance by all parties.
Since the suicide bomb attack on her in December, President Chandrika has launched scathing attacks on the UNP and LTTE leader Prabhakaran. But, Justice minister GL Peiris assures that the peace process remains at the top of her political agenda. The architect of the government’s peace proposals, Mr Peiris, is optimistic that the proposed constitutional changes following PA’s four-stage plan are achievable within the next two months. Some observers say the time frame is unrealistic given the complexities of the conflict and that the plan is for short-term political advantage in view of the general elections later this year.
The PA General Secretary and Lands minister DM Jayaratne says that talks with the LTTE on the new constitution will be held within the next three months. The Tigers have not made any statement on Norway’s involvement. But, according to diplomats, LTTE’s Anton Balasingham, who is currently in Britain, had approached the Norwegian government informally. Other sources indicate that discussions between Norwegian officials and the LTTE are continuing.
Even with Norwegian involvement, Tamil observers believe that the Tigers may not agree to negotiate without acceptance of the principles put forward by the Tamil delegation at the Thimpu peace conference in 1985 - recognition of the Tamil right to self-determination, the homeland and Tamil national identity.
Despite the peace initiative, there are no signs of war efforts diminishing. While the Tiger millennium celebrations focussed on new recruitment, the Army has launched a campaign to enlist 15,000 new soldiers. Reports say that in January the US agreed to sell combat-related equipment, including mortar-locating devices, helicopters and high-calibre ammunition to Sri Lanka. US officers say that the interaction with the Sri Lankan armed forces is founded on shared interests in democracy, peace-keeping, human rights and regional stability.
There is a growing opinion that India’s role is vital for a lasting solution to the Sri Lankan problem. The Sri Lankan government, the LTTE and the international community are only too aware of New Delhi’s concerns. Analysts say that India, unlike earlier involvements, has a long-term approach to the island’s conflict and is part of a group of nations promoting peace in Sri Lanka which would guarantee security and stability in the region.